cld Race 7, No.6 Danish Twist - PLACE @ $1.78Caulfield Race 8, No.1 | Forum

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jcy123 Nov 20 '19
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Caulfield CupThis years Group 1 Caulfield Cup field is as notable for whos not competing, as it is for who is.The race looked to be at the mercy of one of the stars of the spring in Hartnell, who under 55.5kg would have started an extremely short-priced favourite.That Godolphin has elected to go to next weeks Cox Plate with the gelding suggests the camp is either bullish about beating Winx, or it feels it can win anyway with either of its two acceptors at Caulfield, Scottish and Tally. Or it could mean both.At any rate, its likely Hartnell would have made short work of what looks on paper a substandard Caulfield Cup field. Almost by default, Hartnells absence means favouritism lies with Jameka, the Ciaron Maher-trained mare who chased him home in the Turnbull Stakes.Although well beaten by the Godolphin flagbearer at Flemington, Jameka disposed of the rest just as easily -- giving form out of the race a really solid look. Whats more, Jamekas win prior in the Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield was breathtaking.At $3.70 with UBET Jameka is well found in what is usually a ferociously competitive race, so the temptation is to look elsewhere for value. The pickings, however, are thin.As ever, its hard to line up the internationals, especially when they come here without a local sighter under their belts.For reasons mentioned above, though, full respect is afforded to Scottish, who matches the prototype unexposed middle-distance horse Godolphin now brings to Australia. Additionally, the UK arm of the operation has shown in the past it can ready a galloper for a first-up tilt at the Caulfield Cup.Scottish ran the world-class Highland Reel to a length over 2400m last year, and he has other form which ties in with another UK native in opposition at Caulfield, Exospheric, but its hard to get overly enthused about any galloper which hasnt yet raced in this country. For every Vintage Crop and All The Good, there are umpteen others who have tried and failed.Outside of Jameka, most of the locals have convictions lengthy enough to warrant imprisonment, but one worthy of consideration is Real Love, a lightly weighted mare which is in form, will get the trip and will like the ground. And you could do worse than have a shekel or two each-way on Big Memory at cricket-score odds. At least he is racing well, which is something that cant be said for many in this years edition.I keep coming back to Jameka, however. If shes short enough, its because shes the most likely winner.Recommended bet: Jameka to win. But it might pay to wait -- she should drift from the $3.70 on offer with UBET.Best Bet I: Caulfield Race 9, No.4 Wild Rain @ $6 with UBETHellbent is favourite for this Group 2 scamper, and perhaps rightly so on the back of some excellent efforts in his first preparation for Darren Weir.But whether he deserves to be close to even money is doubtful. My take on the market is there is far too great a gap between Hellbent and the galloper with probably the best form in the race, Wild Rain.Wild Rain took on Group 1 company last start in the Moir Stakes, and excelled to run a close-up third to Extreme Choice, with the likes of Chautauqua and Buffering in behind. If that isnt the hottest short-course form in the country right now, Id like to know what is.Wild Rain has drawn nicely in gate three and stays down in the weights courtesy of the return of former top sprinter Lankan Rupee, whose trainer Mick Price is on record as saying Saturday is little more than a cobweb-blowing exercise for later targets.And then theres the trip. Though some of her rivals have a good record at the distance, Wild Rain is the only out-and-out 1000m specialist (with a winning chance) in this field.Thats just one of the many boxes Wild Rain ticks for this challenge. Heer price is generous in the extreme. Vapormax Plus Femme Pas Cher. Best Bet II Randwick Race 8, No.10 Egyptian Symbol @ $2.80 with UBETLooks a beautiful first-up assignment for this classy daughter of Stratum.The pick of her form comfortably trumps anything else on offer here, with close-up efforts last prep behind the likes of Mahuta, Southern Legend and Japonisme testimony to her quality.The set weights-plus-penalties conditions has Egyptian Symbol pitchforked in under 54kg, plus she is unbeaten in two first-up runs.Provided Jason Collett doesnt get too far out of his ground on the mare, she should simply be far too good for her rivals.Over The OddsCaulfield Race 7, No.6 Danish Twist @ $4.50 with UBETHappy to again bet around First Seal after her uninspiring first-up effort. Shell command her fair share of market attention, as usual meaning there is value to be found elsewhere.Tycoon Tara is likely to start favourite, and its hard to knock her after a string of excellent efforts in Sydney.But the fly in the ointment is another visitor from north of the border, Danish Twist.The half-sister to Happy Trails has done nothing but improve for Kris Lees, showing she was in for a good spring when running a desperately close third behind Takedown when first-up in the Premiere Stakes.Danish Twist will relish the return to mares company on Saturday, with her outside draw in the field of 13 the only negative. Shes been ridden from the back with success in the past, but her chances will diminish if Caulfield plays as leaderish as it did on Wednesday. If the track is fair to all, shell be hard to beat in this.Caulfield Race 6, No.1 Its Somewhat @ $2.60 with UBETIts Somewhat is finally starting to reproduce his excellent European form, the pick of which saw him place in the 2014 Group 1 Eclipse Stakes.That race is over the same distance as Saturdays Coongy Cup, and indeed its the journey most favoured by this honest gelding.Godolphin is in rare form this spring, and Its Somewhat looks to be going as well as ever -- placings behind Hauraki and Winx, prior to a bloodless win last start in the Craven Plate at Randwick, is form that speaks very well for a race of this nature.Has to carry 59kg and concede up to 5kg to most rivals, but hes earned his impost. Should sit behind a good speed from the inside gate and run past them in the straight.Under The OddsCaulfield Race 2, No.7 Acatour @ $2.60 with UBETA colt of obvious ability, and is two from two this campaign, but rises sharply in grade while dropping in trip from his running-on triumph in midweek grade at Rosehill.Talent alone may well will the day, but Acatour will need to be very good to give some good three-year-olds a start and mow them down when hes clearly looking for further.Not for mine at the skinny quote.Lay Of The DayCaulfield Race 5, No.2 Good Standing @ $3.60 with UBETRan OK in the Caulfield Guineas without much luck but this colts record -- eight starts for one win and two placings, albeit in good company -- is beginning to look a little plain.Good Standing might well be looking for the 2000m of the Caulfield Classic but so too is Seaburge, who produced the better run in the Guineas yet shares favouritism with James Cummingss charge on Saturday.There are other winning hopes in this race, too, so at the price the recommendation is to give Good Standing a wide berth.Multi of the weekendCaulfield Race 2, No.5 Mortons Fork - PLACE @ $1.58Caulfield Race 7, No.6 Danish Twist - PLACE @ $1.78Caulfield Race 8, No.11 Jameka - PLACE @ $1.68Caulfield Race 9, No.4 Wild Rain - PLACE @ $1.87Randwick Race 8, No.10 Egyptian Symbol PLACE @ $1.45Multi price: $12.81 with UBET ' ' '