Anyone familiar with Sports Insights knows we advocate a contrarian approach to
sports betting.
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contrarian investing, this strategy is characterized by placing funds behind
unpopular stocks (or teams) in contrast to prevailing opinions. A contrarian
believes mob psychology -- which is largely comprised of casual weekend warrior
bettors -- can lead to exploitable mispricing.Within the framework of the sports
betting marketplace, most bettors can be categorized as either sharps or
squares. Sharps, who are alternatively referred to as wise guys or betting
syndicates, spread large bets across multiple sportsbooks. Widely respected,
sharps are a smaller group that moves lines across the marketplace. They are not
necessarily defined by the size of their wager, but rather by their winning
track record and consistent ability to get the best of the number.The majority
of bettors can be categorized as squares, who casually place wagers based on gut
feelings and instinct, rather than data analytics and model building. Squares
love winning teams and high-scoring games, and therefore tend to pound favorites
and overs. This has historically created a slight edge in betting on underdogs
and unders.Widespread pessimism about a team can lead to one-sided betting. This
influx of public money often causes sportsbooks to mitigate their risk by
adjusting the line, and forcing casual bettors to take a bad number on the
popular side of the game. Although theyre not necessarily looking to balance
their books, oddsmakers excel at accounting for public money, and often shade
their opening line to account for known biases.Using a contrarian philosophy,
many strategies can be used to extract value each week. Betting against the
public is one cornerstone, but there are additional ways bettors can use public
betting information in conjunction with historically profitable trends. Using
our historical college football database, I have identified three ways that
bettors can win during bowl season.
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PETERSBURG, Fla.
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-- St.
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.com) - Yankee Stadium is the home of the Bronx Bombers, but on Sunday afternoon
it will open its gates to host the latest addition of the Hudson River Rivalry.
Northamptonshire 31 for 0 trail Kent 230 (Dickson 63, Coles 52, Gidman 51,
Kleinveldt 3-70) by 199 runsScorecard Northamptonshire are easily branded a team
of white-ball specialists. Yet for all their excellence in the limited overs
games - T20 champions twice in four seasons, and denied a Royal London Cup
semi-final berth only by the majesty of Kumar Sangakkara - the club feel that
they have not given the best of themselves in the County Championship.Chances of
a tilt at promotion went in the dying embers of spring, never mind the onset of
autumn. But an evisceration of Glamorgan last week hinted at Northants potential
over four days, especially when the end of their white-ball season means that
David Ripley does not have to preserve his sides vitality for limited-overs.The
return of the schools in September feels like no time for outground cricket. For
Northants, this sepulchral day allowed their seamers to embrace the role of
wreckers, intent on ending Kents hopes of promotion back to Division One.Jokes
about Rory Kleinveldts girth are trotted out often, yet Kent would have felt in
no mood for them after his skilful swing with the second new ball prevented a
score more substantial than 230. Ben Sanderson was relentlessly accurate, and
Steven Crook in unyielding mood too.Yet it was Azharullah who left the greatest
mark on Kent. First, Sam Northeast, the totem of his sides batting all season,
was induced to give an outside edge behind. Next ball, Darren Stevens edge found
Rob Keogh at third slip, a dismissal for which the batsman could not be
considered culpable.An odd feature of Beckenham is the Kent team analyst
occupies the same tent as the media. As a result, batsmen often pop in to watch
how they were dismissed. When he did so, Stevens could only rue his bad luck:
the delivery had swung in, seamed away and squared him up, the sort of ball to
render his outstanding form meaningless.After the end Sean Dicksons austere 63,
an innings in keeping with the sombre mood of the day, Kent slipped to 122 for
6, a position from which they feared not even gaining a single batting point.
That they didd so owed everything to a contrasting pair of half-centuries.
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only two years since Will Gidman was one of the most sought-after county
cricketers in the land. Yet he has spent much of the intervening period marooned
in 2nd XI cricket, seemingly a man too good for Division Two but not good enough
for Division One. Kent still reckoned that he could assist their attempt to
return to Division One for the first since 2010, and in July enlisted him on
loan from Nottinghamshire.Gidmans reputation in Division Two was built on his
parsimonious seam bowling, but it is as an unobtrusive middle-order batsman that
he has been most valuable for Kent. He plays the ball late, prefers to hit along
the ground, and is skilled in working the ball around adroitly - so much so
that, when Gidman chipped Graeme White to midwicket for 51, where Kleinveldt
took a neat catch, it was the first time that he had been dismissed for Kent in
the County Championship. Four innings have brought four half-centuries, an
average of 283 and enough, surely, for Kent to be keen to sign him permanently
should Gidman be released from the final year of his contract at Trent
Bridge.Matt Coles, who could be considered the anti-Gidman, is not the sort to
escape notice in anything he does. On this gloomy day, Coles briefly restored a
little of the festival feeling that is supposed to be inherent to outgrounds
with a sparkling 41-ball half century that was a distillation of Coles power,
bravado and considerable skill. All were in evidence in an astonishing
reverse-sweep for six over midwicket off Rob Keoghs offspin, the sort of shot to
startle any indulging in a late-afternoon nap.Yet when Coles failed to take a
wicket in his opening burst, memories of this bravado were overtaken by Kents
frustration with their opening-day batting. Wish it was this easy when we
batted, chuntered a Kent member as the evening session meandered to a conclusion
with Kents promotion ambitions cooling - at least for now.
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